Prospective Studies: Choice of Variables and Prediction

Abstract

The article refers to the matter of prospective models in social sciences. The author focuses on the differences between the performance of such studies in the northern and southern hemisphere: in the north they are based upon present, observable and measurable trends giving the appearance of «objective» and don’t introduce scenarios based on subjective value judgments, as in the case of southern studies. At the same time, she questions the validity of the conclusions such studies cast in the social field to conclude that they present some difficulty to access the scientific level —because their predictions may not be fulfilled— and that they are future states with possible character —thus reducing the uncertainty of the future— she acknowledges its uncertain character.