How do Argentinians Vote? Observations on the Sociodemographic Profile and Vote Transfers in the Argentine Presidential Elections of 2023

Abstract

This research note analyzes the dynamics of the electorate in the 2023 Argentine presidential elections, from the primaries to the runoff. Using ecological inference models, the study examines the shift in voter support in each election and observes the evolution of each party’s support coalition. Furthermore, the analysis of voters'socio-economic status reveals a novel phenomenon in Argentine electoral history: the emergence of a coalition capable of breaking with the tradition of support from the working class to Peronism and the middle class to the non-Peronist allegiance.Additionally, it highlights how the reduced electoral options in the runoff facilitated the coordination of voters seeking a political change, ultimately resulting in Javier Milei being elected as the next president of Argentina.