¿Son las crisis políticas causa de las crisis financieras? Evidencias del gobierno de la Alianza (1999-2000)

Abstract

From an existing model of financial crisis, the article explores how a weak government and a political crisis can explain a worsening or outbreak of a financial crisis in developing countries. As empirical base we use a case study, the evolution of the UCR-Frepaso government coalition (10/12/1999 to 12/10/2001), which fell in the midst of an almost unprecedented financial collapse. Four periods of sharp deterioration in financial position are identified (using the country risk indicator) and for each one of them, we intend to detect associations between political events and financial stress. From the empirical regularities found in this analysis, four explanatory hypotheses are proposed about the role of 1) the political crisis, 2) the messages sent by influential politicians, 3) the rumors and 4) the interaction between political weakness and macroeconomic weakness. These four factors appear to be part of the explanation of the Argentine financial implosion in late 2001.