Neither Horoscopes nor Oracles. Reflections on Public Opinion Polls

Abstract

The article makes an assessment of one of the most used —and most controversial— tool during elections time: opinion polls. It focuses on how and how much can the dissemination of electoral forecasting emerged from these kind of surveys, influence on the public. It concludes that, while it is possible that the publication of the results of opinion polls may produce some kind of effect on the attitude of voters, at the same time this effect can manifest in various ways and to varying degrees and, as usually happens in the social sciences, may be only one of the factors guiding human behavior.