The Effect of Electoral Participation in the Primaries for the 1999 Presidential Election in Chile

Abstract

To what extent, the turnout level in a primary election explains turnout in the subsequent general election and on the vote for the winning candidate in the primary? There was a positive effect of the presidential primary held by the “Concertación” in Chile in 1999 on the vote for Ricardo Lagos in that year’s presidential election. There was also a positive effect of primary turnout on general election turnout in 1999 and a positive relationship between the vote for the losing candidate in the primary and the opposition candidate in the general election. After analyzing the theory on the effect of primaries on the candidate selection process, we summarize the prior history of primaries in Chile. With communal level data, we assess the effect of primary turnout and electoral support for the winning candidate on the vote the coalition candidate in the general election. We finish by discussing the implications that holding primaries might have on the general election vote share for that coalition.