The Effectiveness of Public Policy to Stimulate External Sales. The Export Increase and Diversification Program (Padex) in Argentina, 2014-2015

Abstract

In Argentina, the export sector has historically been an alternative to develop the domestic economy, and/or a channel to access new markets and generate complementarities within the productive structure. Since the beginning of the 21st century, given the transformations in the world trading system, exports not only have represented between a fifth and a quarter of GDP, but they have also been a fundamental determinant of long-term growth, increasing the in flow of foreign currency and contracting the external restriction. In this paper, we demonstrate that in 2014 and 2015 the Program of Increase and Diversification of Exports (PADEx,forits acronym in Spanish) was a public policy tool, in response to the fall of the sales of goods abroad. We study the case because it is a program designed with informed criteria, and in which different agencies of the state participated, whose results were not as projected. The PADEx is useful to reflect on the limitations of the export promotion policies and the ireffectiveness,especially in the case of short-term scenarios, with macroeconomic problems—such as external, fiscal and relative price imbalances—, and when fiscal and monetary policies, previously fixed, are oriented to other goals. Ourstudy is structured from the analysis of thestagesof construction and development of public policy, based on official statistics and documentation related to program issued by different state agencies. First, we make a diagnosis about the export situation,that is, we examine the contextin which the PADEx was built. Second, we explain its planning and implementation processes between 2014 and 2015. Third, we carry out an expost evaluation according to known results. Finally, we propose a reflection on the limitations of public policies to promote exports in Argentina.