In 2019, the Government will not be Re-elected

Abstract

The first presidential forecasting model for Argentina which does not rely on election poll tracking and which can be applied before any given election gives reason to believe that the Cambiemos coalition will not win reelection in 2019 at the presidential level. A pattern seen ever since 1989, according to which the winner of the previous election was never able to score a new win if four out of seven selected indicators on the state of the country were unfavorable, would allow for said conclusion, given precisely that many indicators are already negative and would thus cost President Macri his reelection. The model had been built by following Lichtman and Keilis Borok (1981): a high and significant correlation between the va[1]riables provides important empirical evidence to support it.